Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility (4192% realized vol) and illiquidity ($0 24h volume, $6,042 open interest) despite a modest 48¢ price, with a punishing 13¢ spread and 187% annualized yield on the Yes side suggesting significant uncertainty around whether Topuria will hold the lightweight belt in 2.5 years.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (4192% realized vol) and illiquidity ($0 24h volume, $6,042 open interest) despite a modest 48¢ price, with a punishing 13¢ spread and 187% annualized yield on the Yes side suggesting significant uncertainty around whether Topuria will hold the lightweight belt in 2.5 years. The 62¢-to-57¢ price drop over seven days and elevated info arrival rate (2.5/h) indicate active repricing, though the neutral regime and minimal trading volume raise questions about whether this reflects genuine market consensus or thin-liquidity noise. With 259 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this contract faces substantial event risk from title fights and potential weight-class changes.
Also on polymarket at 66¢(Δ -22¢)
Resolution rules
If Ilia Topuria is the UFC Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCLIGHTWEIGHTTITLE-26-ITOP yes 100