Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 69% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Justin Gaethje
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Arman Tsarukyan
Spread
61pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
173 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Arman Tsarukyan
KXUFCLIGHTWEIGHTTITLE-26-ATSA
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Justin Gaethje
KXUFCLIGHTWEIGHTTITLE-26-JGAE
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Max Holloway
KXUFCLIGHTWEIGHTTITLE-26-MHOL
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Ilia Topuria
KXUFCLIGHTWEIGHTTITLE-26-ITOP
Analysis
This market estimates a 56% probability that one specific fighter will hold the UFC Lightweight title on December 31, 2026. The current leader, ITOP, has nearly 3.5x the probability of the runner-up at 16%, suggesting market confidence in a particular outcome. The lightweight division's title trajectory depends primarily on whether the current champion retains the belt through 2026 or loses it to a challenger. Major factors include scheduled title fights, injury status of top contenders, and the competitive ranking within the division. The market will face substantial resolution clarity at each title defense or change of hands occurring between now and year-end. Kalshi's three linked contracts indicate traders are pricing the full range of potential lightweight title holders rather than treating this as binary.
- ›Current lightweight champion's injury status and fight schedule through December 2026
- ›Number and quality of ranked challengers who could feasibly capture the title before year-end
- ›Timing of scheduled lightweight title defenses or championship bouts on the UFC calendar
- ›Historical retention rate for UFC lightweight champions over 8-month periods
- ›Market's pricing of the runner-up candidate (16%) versus ITOP leader (56%) implies specific fighter assumptions that can be validated against announced matchups
What moved the line
- Jul 8Justin Gaethje↓12pp72→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Justin Gaethje↑8pp60→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Justin Gaethje↓8pp68→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Justin Gaethje↑6pp60→66¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Arman Tsarukyan↓5pp15→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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