Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Eli Lilly?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Eli Lilly?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely government stake acquisition in Eli Lilly at just 12¢, implying only a 12% probability over the next 259 days.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely government stake acquisition in Eli Lilly at just 12¢, implying only a 12% probability over the next 259 days. The asymmetric implied yield of 1,139.7% for Yes positions versus 17.4% for No reflects the market's conviction that such an intervention is highly improbable, though the minimal 24-hour volume of $0 and modest open interest of $1,503.83 suggest thin liquidity and limited trader confidence in either direction. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 8 indicates potential for sharp repricing if geopolitical or regulatory circumstances shift dramatically, though the stable 7-day price action at 11¢ suggests current sentiment remains entrenched.
Also on polymarket at 32¢(Δ -20¢)
Resolution rules
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Eli Lilly before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-LLY yes 100