Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.72ㅤ?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for Apri.... This contract trades at 46¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $204 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 46% price and 8¢ spread potentially unreliable indicators of true probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $204 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 46% price and 8¢ spread potentially unreliable indicators of true probability. The astronomical implied yields (2244% on Yes, 917% on No) reflect the tiny position sizes rather than genuine expected returns, and the sharp 11¢ price decline over seven days suggests volatile, thin-market dynamics rather than fundamental repricing. With 25 days to resolution and a neutral regime score, traders should be cautious about the market's predictive value given the minimal liquidity and extreme yield figures typical of low-activity contracts.
Resolution rules
If the United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 6.72ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSGBEEF-26MAY12-T6.72 yes 100