Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.78ㅤ?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for Apri.... This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $34 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 10,507.9% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $34 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 10,507.9% implied yield on the Yes side. The 7¢ spread is wide relative to the contract price, and the recent downward movement from 14¢ to 12¢ suggests shifting sentiment toward the No outcome, though the thin liquidity limits confidence in directional signals. With 25 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 7, this market appears mispriced due to insufficient trading activity rather than genuine fundamental conviction.
Resolution rules
If the United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 6.78ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSGBEEF-26MAY12-T6.78 yes 100