Will John Fetterman vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Will John Fetterman vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in an 82% probability that Senator Fetterman votes yes on the next Fed Chair nominee, but the extreme 599% implied yield on the "no" side suggests severe mispricing or structural inefficiency—this no-side yield is nearly 18x higher than the yes-side despite the overwhelming probability differential.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 82% probability that Senator Fetterman votes yes on the next Fed Chair nominee, but the extreme 599% implied yield on the "no" side suggests severe mispricing or structural inefficiency—this no-side yield is nearly 18x higher than the yes-side despite the overwhelming probability differential. Volume is thin at $562 over 24 hours with only $4,940 open interest, indicating low liquidity that may be exacerbating the yield distortion, and the realized volatility of 184% combined with a vol ratio of 3.01 signals elevated uncertainty despite the confident price level. The market has rallied sharply from 69¢ to 81¢ over seven days with 260 days to expiry, leaving substantial time for information arrival (0.6 events per hour), though the low cliff risk index of 4 suggests the outcome isn't highly binary or event-dependent.
Resolution rules
If John Fetterman votes Yea for the next Fed Chair nominee before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXVOTEFEDCHAIR-27-JFET yes 100