Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely high probability (92%) that Senator Tim Scott will vote affirmatively on the next Fed Chair nominee, yet shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite 260 days to expiration and $2,997 open interest.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely high probability (92%) that Senator Tim Scott will vote affirmatively on the next Fed Chair nominee, yet shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite 260 days to expiration and $2,997 open interest. The stark asymmetry in implied yields—13.9% for Yes versus 1421.9% for No—reflects the severe mispricing of tail risk, suggesting either strong conviction among existing position holders or illiquidity-driven distortion; the 5¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 10 warrant caution about execution quality if attempting to trade against the consensus.
Resolution rules
If Tim Scott votes Yea for the next Fed Chair nominee before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade KXVOTEFEDCHAIR-27-TSCO yes 100