Will Josh Shapiro be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Josh Shapiro be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 936% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 1.6% on the No side, reflecting the low 4¢ price and substantial $42,852 open interest despite minimal 24-hour volume of only $13.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 936% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 1.6% on the No side, reflecting the low 4¢ price and substantial $42,852 open interest despite minimal 24-hour volume of only $13. The 2¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, suggesting illiquidity and difficulty in execution at quoted levels. With 936 days until expiration, the market has ample time for repricing, though the neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action indicate current stability despite the extreme yield imbalance.
Resolution rules
If Josh Shapiro accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMD-28-JS yes 100