Will Iga Swiatek win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will Iga Swiatek win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a modest $2,011 open interest, suggesting thin order books and wide effective spreads despite the tight 1¢ quoted spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a modest $2,011 open interest, suggesting thin order books and wide effective spreads despite the tight 1¢ quoted spread. The 37¢ price implies a relatively conservative view of Swiatek's Grand Slam prospects over the next 258 days, though the 230.6% implied yield on the Yes side indicates substantial upside potential if she performs. The sharp 10¢ price movement over seven days (28% increase) combined with near-zero trading activity raises questions about whether this reflects genuine probability shifts or merely thin-market volatility.
Resolution rules
If Iga Swiatek wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-ISWI yes 100