Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
468 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Alexander Zverev: Alexander Zverev
Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Alexander Zverev: Alexander Zverev
KXATPGRANDSLAM-27-AZEV
Analysis
This probability estimates a 15% chance that Jannik Sinner wins at least one Grand Slam tournament in 2026. The market reflects Sinner's strong recent form—he won the Australian Open in January 2026 and holds multiple Grand Slam titles—but also acknowledges the difficulty of winning additional majors within the same calendar year. The probability is driven primarily by whether Sinner can maintain peak performance through the remaining 2026 Grand Slams (French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) while managing fatigue and competition from rivals like Novak Djokovic and other top contenders. The next major catalyst is Wimbledon in late June/July 2026, which will provide concrete evidence of Sinner's form and injury status heading into the US Open in late summer. Resolution occurs definitively on December 31, 2026, when the year concludes.
- ›Sinner won the 2026 Australian Open, establishing he is capable of Grand Slam victory this year but also raising the bar for winning a second major in the same calendar year
- ›The 70¢ contract price reflects moderate confidence in Sinner winning another Grand Slam in 2026, substantially higher than Djokovic (15¢) and other competitors, suggesting him as the market favorite
- ›Remaining 2026 Grand Slam tournaments (Wimbledon, US Open, and potentially French Open if counting remaining majors) must be played without certainty about injuries, form volatility, or tactical adjustments by competitors
- ›Grand Slam tournaments require eight consecutive match wins under high physical and mental stress, a demanding threshold that varies significantly across different court surfaces and tournament conditions
- ›Market liquidity is moderate ($104 24h volume on Sinner's contract) compared to Djokovic, indicating meaningful uncertainty rather than consensus among traders
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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