What is the current probability for "Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $82 by Apr 30, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 2 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $82 by Apr 30, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 496.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $82 by Apr 30, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $82 by Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario with WTI front-month crude needing to stay below $82 for the entire period through April 30, 2026, reflected in the 14% Yes probability and astronomical 15,106% implied yield.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 2/3¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $17,771.49·OI $33,247.66·Closes Apr 30, 2026·2d remaining

KXWTIMINM-26APR30-T82

7-day price1198 snapshots · 116 regime

80¢2¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 28

Analysis

11d ago

This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario with WTI front-month crude needing to stay below $82 for the entire period through April 30, 2026, reflected in the 14% Yes probability and astronomical 15,106% implied yield. The 31¢ spread and minimal $11.51 daily volume suggest severe illiquidity, making the extreme yield figures potentially misleading given the difficulty of actually executing at quoted prices. With only 14 days to expiration and WTI historically trading well above $82 in recent years, the sharp price movement from 3¢ to 15¢ over seven days and elevated realized volatility of 5,756% indicate this contract is experiencing outsized price swings typical of deep out-of-the-money options approaching expiry.

Resolution rules

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $82 between Issuance and Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%

IY (No) 496.2%

Adj IY 33335%

CRI 32

EE 49.000

LAS 0.33

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	496.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	33335%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	49.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
LAS	0.33	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/28/2026, 12:25:24 PM

SF edge 52.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (5)

NO +52¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +18¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

NO +58¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril

NO +50¢thesis — Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f

NO +40¢thesis — Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. A

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/28/2026, 11:53:52 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWTIMINM-26APR30-T82 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →