Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $78 by Apr 30, 2026
Leader sits at 38% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
86 or below
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
80 or below
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$16K
liquid
Closes
May 30, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $8
Recently closed in oil
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $60last 88% · 6d
- What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 5 Gweilast 47% · 6d
- Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?: 1.5mlast 96% · 6d
- What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $77-$84last 35% · 6d
- Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $65last 96% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (38% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In oil
Related reading
Bearish Oil Bets Surge as Iran Optimism Grows
The probability of crude oil (WTI) falling below $75 by end of June has skyrocketed 47 points to 89¢, with a 37% chance of hitting below $70. This is a direct response to the increased optimism around an Iran nuclear deal, which could bring significant Iranian oil supply back to the market.
Oil Traders Pivot to Bearish as Geopolitical Risk Premium Erodes
As the US-Iran peace deal narrative strengthens, oil markets are repricing lower. The probability of crude oil falling below $80 by end of June surged 17¢ to 81¢, while expectations for a rally above $120 collapsed. The VIX fell 4.41%, confirming a broader 'risk-on' shift that typically accompanies a reduction in geopolitical tensions.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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