Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. This market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite over $1,300 in open interest, suggesting limited liquidity and a potentially stale 60¢ price that hasn't moved in seven days.
Analysis
This market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite over $1,300 in open interest, suggesting limited liquidity and a potentially stale 60¢ price that hasn't moved in seven days. The asymmetric implied yields (22.0% for Yes vs. 35.7% for No) indicate the No side offers significantly better risk-adjusted returns at 18%, which may reflect either underpricing of Democratic chances or a risk premium for the extended 1,301-day timeframe to the 2029 election. With a 5¢ spread and neutral regime score, this appears to be a thinly-traded early-stage market where price discovery remains incomplete.
Also on polymarket at 86¢(Δ -23¢)
Resolution rules
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade SENATENC-28-D yes 100