Will the Republican Party win the AL-06 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites at 91¢ with minimal recent price movement and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting consensus around GOP retention of this seat but limited active trading interest. The extreme 1845% implied yield on the "No" outcome reflects the asymmetric risk profile typical of heavily favored outcomes, though the $18.1M open interest indicates meaningful capital is deployed despite the illiquid conditions. With 200 days to expiration and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a settled market awaiting the November 2026 election with little near-term catalyst expected.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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