Will the Republican Party win the AL-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $25k open interest, suggesting the 6¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The astronomical 2859% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a deeply mispriced long-shot contract where minimal capital is required to move prices dramatically, creating unrealistic return calculations. With 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the 16 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution—this contract could experience sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election as actual campaign dynamics emerge.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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