Will the Democrats win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $21k in open interest, suggesting the 7¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The 2,425.6% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and economically nonsensical—a classic sign of mispricing in thin markets where even small position sizes can distort probability estimates. With nearly two years until the 2026 election and a 13 Cliff Risk Index, this contract remains highly speculative and should be treated with significant caution given the illiquidity and potential for sharp repricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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