Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13.7K open interest, suggesting the 6¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus given the wide 3¢ spread. The 2216% implied yield on the "Yes" side is artificially inflated due to the low price and should be discounted heavily—the risk-adjusted yield of 1108% still indicates substantial mispricing relative to the ~7% historical annual turnover rate for Australian prime ministers. With 258 days to expiration and a moderate 16 cliff risk index, this appears underpriced if you believe there's any meaningful probability of political instability, though the complete lack of recent price movement and trading activity suggests the market may simply be abandoned.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthony Albanese ceases to be the Prime Minister of Australia for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Anthony Albanese's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Australian government and Anthony Albanese; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade