Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

The 77¢ price reflects strong conviction that Anthropic will IPO with a $600B+ valuation by end-2027, but the extreme 196% risk-adjusted implied yield on the "No" side signals substantial tail risk—likely reflecting uncertainty around IPO timing, valuation, or whether an IPO occurs at all within the 624-day window. The 233% realized volatility and 5.79 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced significant price swings, though the modest $60.9k daily volume and tight 2¢ spread suggest relatively thin liquidity for a binary with $6.6M open interest. The neutral regime score and steady 7-day climb from 71¢ to 77¢ suggest recent positive sentiment toward an IPO outcome, but the 3.0 cliff risk index warrants caution given the binary nature of resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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