Will the Republican Party win the AR-01 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites to retain AR-01 with a 93% implied probability, though the extreme 2425% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity on the losing outcome—only $18.6k in open interest supports this pricing. With zero 24-hour volume and a flat 200-day price trajectory, this appears to be a stale market reflecting structural Republican strength in the district rather than active trading, making the high cliff risk index (13) a concern for late-arriving contrarian bettors.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade