Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1350.00 and 1399.99 at the end of December 2026?

The market is pricing in only a 13% probability that Argentina's official USD/ARS rate will remain in the 1350-1399.99 band by end-2026, despite substantial open interest of $709k and a notably wide 11¢ spread suggesting low conviction among traders. The extreme 947% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a 615% realized volatility indicates this is a highly speculative, illiquid position where the pricing may not reflect true consensus—the recent sharp price movement from 7¢ to 13¢ over seven days warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine new information or thin-market dynamics. With 258 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 7, traders should be aware that Argentine currency policy and inflation dynamics remain volatile and could produce sharp repricing closer to resolution.

Resolution rules

This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

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