Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1600.00 at the end of December 2026?

The 32¢ price implies only a 32% probability that Argentina's official USD/ARS rate stays below 1600 by end-2026, reflecting market skepticism about peso stability given Argentina's persistent inflation dynamics. The extreme 301% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 34¢ spread suggests this is a highly illiquid, speculative position with significant tail risk—the 1665% realized volatility indicates massive historical price swings in this market. With 258 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 4.4 events per hour, this market is actively monitored but remains thinly traded, making the current pricing potentially unreliable for serious position-taking.

Resolution rules

This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Indicators

Regime

Trade