Will the Democrats win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?

This market reflects an extremely bearish Democratic outlook in Arkansas, pricing their gubernatorial chances at just 6%, which aligns with the state's strong Republican lean in recent cycles. The astronomical 2860% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing potential or reflects the market's conviction that Democratic victory is a tail-risk event, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $28,923 open interest suggest thin liquidity and limited recent price discovery. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 warrants caution, as it indicates potential for sharp repricing closer to the 2026 election, particularly if Democratic recruitment or national conditions shift materially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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