Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing in an extremely dominant Republican outcome at 94¢, reflecting Arkansas's deep red electoral lean, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $21k open interest suggest minimal recent conviction or liquidity. The asymmetric implied yields—11.6% for Yes versus 2859% for No—reveal a severe pricing imbalance where the No side offers astronomical returns, likely reflecting illiquidity rather than genuine Democratic viability in this state. With nearly two years until resolution and a 16 Cliff Risk Index, this market remains relatively stable but should be monitored for any Democratic recruitment or national political shifts that could challenge the Republican consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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