Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?

The BJP is priced at an extremely high 96¢ with only 33 days to expiration, reflecting strong confidence in their dominance in Assam state politics, though the asymmetric implied yields (46.1% for Yes versus 26,567% for No) suggest minimal liquidity on the No side with just $10.8M open interest. The modest 2-cent price appreciation over seven days and tight 1¢ spread indicate relatively stable market sentiment, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 24 warrants caution given the approaching May 2026 election date and potential for late-breaking political developments to shift outcomes.

Resolution rules

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).

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