Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing May 20, 2026. The INC is priced at an extreme 3¢ with an absurd 35,848% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting near-zero market confidence in a Congress victory in Assam—a state where the BJP-led NDA has dominated recent elections.
Analysis
The INC is priced at an extreme 3¢ with an absurd 35,848% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting near-zero market confidence in a Congress victory in Assam—a state where the BJP-led NDA has dominated recent elections. With only $44.7K in 24-hour volume against $13.3M open interest and 33 days to resolution, liquidity is thin relative to positions held, creating potential slippage risk if the price moves materially. The neutral regime score (0.409) and stable 7-day price action indicate this is a settled consensus bet rather than a volatile market, though the extreme yield and Cliff Risk Index of 32 warrant caution on position sizing given the binary nature of electoral outcomes.
Resolution rules
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xcdc4b2965ece5e6f7842bd509f077b6647388fae7f909aabc086ed86d7b48b35 yes 100