Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $14k open interest, suggesting the position is largely trapped.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $14k open interest, suggesting the position is largely trapped. The 4450% implied yield on the Yes side is a statistical artifact of the depressed 7¢ price and should not be taken literally—such yields only materialize if Trobough wins the nomination, an outcome the market assigns just 7% probability to. The sharp price movement from 2¢ to 7¢ over seven days warrants caution, as it could reflect new information about the race or simply thin-market volatility given the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0x3eb36575921368d668de054dce113f4237d222ccbff11516e21a257e19b82bce yes 100