Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15.6k open interest and an unusually wide 8¢ spread, suggesting the 5¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15.6k open interest and an unusually wide 8¢ spread, suggesting the 5¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The implied yield of 6,361% on the yes side is a statistical artifact of the low price rather than a genuine opportunity, given the neutral regime score and modest 7-day price appreciation from 4¢ to 5¢. With 109 days until the August 4, 2026 primary resolution and a moderate cliff risk index of 19, this appears to be a thinly-traded long-shot position that warrants caution around execution.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xeac6e14a4b340e731a6beede3963b4e21fe1a08682e3a1a66c846b6fe26ecc6b yes 100