Will the Republican Party win the AZ-09 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (88%) for Republican victory in AZ-09, yet shows zero 24-hour volume despite $16,963 in open interest, suggesting this is a stale or illiquid position. The asymmetric implied yields—24.9% for Yes versus 1338.2% for No—indicate severe mispricing or a liquidity trap where the No side offers outsized returns due to minimal backing. With 200 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 7, this market warrants caution as the extreme No yield likely reflects desperation pricing rather than genuine opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade