Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?

This market shows extreme conviction in a rate cut, with Yes priced at 96¢ and having surged 6 percentage points over the past week, suggesting recent data or central bank communications have shifted expectations strongly toward easing. The No side exhibits a distorted 75,122% implied yield due to minimal liquidity on that contract ($0 open interest), creating a lopsided risk profile where the market is pricing near-certainty rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty. With only 12 days until expiry and moderate 24-hour volume of $4,616, this is a thin market approaching resolution, though the 60% realized volatility and neutral regime suggest some underlying economic debate persists despite the overwhelming price signal.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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Trade