Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?

This market shows a sharp 7-cent decline over the past week (93¢ to 86¢), suggesting recent skepticism about a rate cut despite the still-elevated 86% probability. The extreme implied yield asymmetry—93.3% for Yes versus 3,519% for No—reveals severe mispricing or illiquidity on the No side, with only $3.6k open interest and a 4¢ spread indicating thin liquidity for a binary outcome. With 64 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, the market faces material resolution uncertainty, though the neutral regime and modest 0.6/h info arrival rate suggest the current price may stabilize absent new economic data from Russia.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Indicators

Regime

Trade