Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

The Grüne contract is priced at a substantial discount (15¢) despite holding $12.9M in open interest, suggesting either strong consensus against a Green plurality or significant uncertainty that hasn't yet materialized in price. The extreme implied yield of 1,326% on the Yes side paired with 862% realized volatility and a 2.29 vol ratio indicates this is a highly speculative, low-liquidity position with pronounced tail risk—the $105 daily volume is negligible relative to open interest, creating potential execution challenges. With 156 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in either SPD or CDU dominance in Berlin's 2026 elections, though the high cliff risk index (6) suggests sharp repricing could occur around key political events.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

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