Bitcoin price on Apr 24, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Bitcoin price on Apr 24, 2026?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This Bitcoin price market shows extreme annualized yields (6272% for Yes, 7975% for No) despite modest 24-hour volume of $12,752, suggesting thin liquidity and potentially distorted pricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This Bitcoin price market shows extreme annualized yields (6272% for Yes, 7975% for No) despite modest 24-hour volume of $12,752, suggesting thin liquidity and potentially distorted pricing rather than genuine conviction. The price has collapsed 26 percentage points over seven days (70¢ to 52¢), indicating either new bearish information or mean reversion in what appears to be a highly volatile micro-market with 1462% realized volatility. With only 5 days to expiration and a tight 1¢ spread, this market is approaching resolution cliff risk, making the current 55% probability for Bitcoin exceeding $75,000 difficult to validate given the illiquidity and extreme yield metrics.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 74999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBTCD-26APR2417-T74999.99 yes 100