Bitcoin price on Apr 24, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Bitcoin price on Apr 24, 2026?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with an astronomical 8114% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 46¢ price severely undervalues Bitcoin's likelihood of exceeding $76,500 by April 24—a strike only ~3% above current levels with just 6 days to expiry.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with an astronomical 8114% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 46¢ price severely undervalues Bitcoin's likelihood of exceeding $76,500 by April 24—a strike only ~3% above current levels with just 6 days to expiry. The sharp 57¢ to 44¢ price collapse over 7 days combined with 717% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 1 indicates acute tail risk and potential liquidity evaporation near resolution, making the thin $3,830 open interest particularly concerning for execution. The 2¢ spread and $12,961 daily volume suggest this contract may be too illiquid to reliably arbitrage the apparent mispricing.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 76499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBTCD-26APR2417-T76499.99 yes 100