Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 30 contracts. Kalshi at 77%, Polymarket at 11% — a 66pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
77%
15 contracts
Polymarket
11%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
66pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10.3M
30 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 77¢ · Polymarket 11¢ · 66pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (11¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (77¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T65499.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T64999.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T64499.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T65999.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T66499.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T63999.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T66999.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T63499.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T62999.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T61999.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T58999.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T60999.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T59999.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T62499.99
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T61499.99
Cluster 2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 250,000
0x6fefc0…1092
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000
0xac32e7…68cd
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 190,000
0xe71b9d…e115
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 180,000
0x799c35…547f
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 170,000
0x9affeb…4234
What moved the line
- Jul 21Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?↑23pp38→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?↑21pp46→67¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?↑20pp55→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?↑20pp32→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?↑19pp62→81¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 77% · 0d
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 7% · 0d
- Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029last 17% · 8d
- Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026last 17% · 22d
- Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026last 3% · 22d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Bitcoin price settlement markets see heavy volume, $64k level key
Bitcoin price markets are highly active, with over 90,000 volume in the $64,000 bucket. The IBIT ETF is up 1.85%, and monthly trimmed mean contracts show bullish bias. Key levels to watch.
Bitcoin Price Markets Clustering Around $62K–$64K for July 17
Bitcoin price prediction markets for July 17 show a cluster around $62,000–$64,000. The IBIT ETF is up 3.9% today. Monthly trimmed mean above $67,500 is at 49¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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