Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 29 contracts. Kalshi at 69%, Polymarket at 11% — a 58pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
69%
15 contracts
Polymarket
11%
14 contracts
Cross-venue gap
58pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11.0M
29 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
118 days
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 69¢ · Polymarket 11¢ · 58pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (11¢, 14 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (69¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0503-T79699.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0503-T79599.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0503-T79799.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0517-T79249.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0503-T79499.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0517-T78749.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0517-T79749.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0517-T79499.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0517-T78999.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0503-T79899.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0503-T79999.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0503-T79399.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0517-T78249.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0517-T77999.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 5, 2026?
KXBTCD-26SEP0517-T78499.99
Cluster 2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000
0xac32e7…68cd
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 190,000
0xe71b9d…e115
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 180,000
0x799c35…547f
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 170,000
0x9affeb…4234
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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