Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 30 contracts. Kalshi at 70%, Polymarket at 18% — a 52pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
70%
15 contracts
Polymarket
18%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
52pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8.7M
30 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
208 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 70¢ · Polymarket 18¢ · 52pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (18¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (70¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T60999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T61499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T54499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T60499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T61999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T54999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T56499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T62499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T59999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T55999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T58999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T55499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T53999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T59499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T66499.99
Cluster 2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 250,000
0x6fefc0…1092
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000
0xac32e7…68cd
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 190,000
0xe71b9d…e115
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 180,000
0x799c35…547f
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 170,000
0x9affeb…4234
What moved the line
- Jun 6Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?↑12pp73→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?↑12pp71→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?↑11pp73→84¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?↑11pp71→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?↑9pp72→81¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in bitcoin
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.