Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

The 4¢ price reflects extreme underdog positioning for Haddad's third-place finish, with a staggering 5182% implied yield on "Yes" positions that suggests either deep mispricing or very low conviction from traders given the modest $151k daily volume. The market has declined 1¢ over seven days despite 169 days to expiry, and the massive open interest of $15.9M relative to volume indicates potential liquidity concentration that could create slippage on larger trades. The 24 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as late-breaking political developments in Brazil could trigger sharp repricing closer to the October 2026 election date.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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