Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

This market shows extreme asymmetry favoring the "No" side, with the Yes position offering a 911.7% implied yield versus just 50.2% for No, suggesting strong consensus that Flávio Bolsonaro will either not win the first round or will win by 5% or more. The 9¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 20¢ price, indicating low liquidity despite $11.5M open interest, and the realized volatility of 1126% paired with a Vol Ratio of 3.65 signals substantial uncertainty or potential mispricing. With 171 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 2.8 events per hour, this market remains highly speculative and vulnerable to sharp repricing as Brazilian political developments unfold.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade