Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

The 4¢ price reflects an extremely low probability that a third candidate will win the first round, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 5132% implied yield versus just 8.9% for No, creating a massive asymmetry that suggests either deep mispricing or heavy concentration of contrarian bets. The market has declined sharply from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days despite $108.7M in 24-hour volume, indicating recent selling pressure that may reflect growing consensus around frontrunner dominance in Brazil's 2026 race. With 171 days to expiry and a 24-point Cliff Risk Index, this remains a speculative position rather than a liquid consensus market, making the extreme yield figures more theoretical than actionable given the 2¢ spread and $13.4M open interest.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Indicators

Regime

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