Will Vassil Terziev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

This market shows extreme asymmetry typical of long-shot political bets, with a 3% probability for Terziev generating a staggering 5,200% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 5% on the No side. The $13.5K open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 2¢ spread suggests illiquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 32 indicates meaningful uncertainty around resolution mechanics given the market's December 3 cutoff for a Fall 2026 election. The recent price movement from 2¢ to 3¢ over seven days represents a 50% increase, though without volume data it's unclear whether this reflects genuine conviction or thin-market volatility.

Resolution rules

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

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Regime

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