Will the Democratic Party win the CA-09 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (92%) for Democratic victory in CA-09, yet shows zero 24-hour volume and a stark asymmetry in implied yields—the "No" side offers a theoretical 2099% return versus just 15.9% for "Yes," indicating severe illiquidity and likely mispricing on the underdog position. With $18,135 in open interest and 200 days to expiration, this appears to be a thin, stagnant market where the high cliff risk index (12) suggests potential for sharp repricing if political conditions shift, though the stable 7-day price action and tight 1¢ spread suggest limited recent conviction either way.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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