Will the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat?

The Democratic favorite in CA-13 is priced at 74¢ with minimal recent price movement and tight 1¢ spreads, suggesting market consensus around this lean-Democratic district. However, the extreme 517% implied yield on "No" outcomes combined with 142% realized volatility and a 1.79 vol ratio indicates significant tail risk pricing—the market is heavily skewed toward a Democratic win but pricing in substantial uncertainty for Republican victory scenarios. With $8.4M open interest but only $17.36 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is notably thin relative to the market size, which could amplify price swings as we approach the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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