Will the Republican Party win the CA-20 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity despite a substantial $18K open interest, with zero 24-hour volume indicating virtually no recent trading activity at the 91¢ price point. The massive 1846% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic liquidity mirage—reflecting the mathematical consequence of pricing a 9% outcome rather than genuine expected returns, and the 10/10 cliff risk score suggests this contract could experience sharp repricing if new information emerges. With 200 days to the November 2026 election, the stable price and neutral regime suggest the market has settled on the Republican lean for CA-20, but traders should be cautious given the negligible trading volume and wide gap between realistic and theoretical yields.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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