Will the Republican Party win the CA-24 House seat?

Republicans are priced at a severe discount in CA-24, with just 7¢ implying a 7% win probability despite the district's historical competitiveness, generating an extraordinary 2,425.6% implied yield on the Yes side. The extremely thin 24-hour volume of $48.3 against $18.5M open interest suggests this mispricing may reflect low liquidity rather than genuine conviction, and the 2¢ spread indicates minimal market depth for correcting the position. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a potential value opportunity if CA-24 is genuinely competitive, though the high cliff risk index of 13 warrants caution about late-breaking political shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade