Will the Democratic Party win the CA-25 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in an 89% win probability with a modest 3¢ spread, but the market shows severe liquidity constraints with zero 24-hour volume against $13.4K open interest, suggesting limited real-time price discovery. The asymmetric implied yields—22.6% for Yes versus 1477% for No—reveal extreme skew toward the Democratic outcome, with a cliff risk index of 8 indicating potential sharp repricing if conditions shift. With 200 days to expiry and a slight 1¢ downward movement over seven days, this appears to be a lightly-traded consensus market where the Republican position offers outsized theoretical returns but faces severe liquidity constraints for execution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade