Will the Republican Party win the CA-35 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 7¢ price implying only a 7% Republican win probability in CA-35, yet the Yes-side implied yield reaches an extraordinary 2425%—a massive red flag for illiquidity and potential arbitrage. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $20.9M open interest suggests this is a stale, illiquid position where the last trade may be significantly outdated, making the price unreliable for genuine probability assessment. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime, traders should verify current CA-35 polling and Democratic incumbency strength before treating this 7¢ quote as actionable, as the extreme yield likely reflects trapped capital rather than true market consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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