Will the Democratic Party win the CA-41 House seat?

This market prices Democrats as overwhelming 92% favorites in CA-41, but the extreme 2098.6% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity—with only $16,844 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, the market lacks depth to validate such a lopsided probability. The 12 Cliff Risk Index and 1049% risk-adjusted yield suggest this is a thin, potentially mispriced market where a modest Democratic underperformance or Republican surge could create significant arbitrage opportunities before the November 2026 resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade