Will the Republican Party win the CA-41 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2,426% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 7¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale liquidity. The Republican probability has declined from 8¢ to 7¢ over seven days in a district (CA-41) that has historically favored Democrats, though the 200-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides substantial room for political shifts. The $18.5M open interest combined with a wide 2¢ spread and elevated cliff risk (13/100) indicates this is a volatile, illiquid position where any meaningful trade could significantly move the price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade