Will the Republican Party win the CA-45 House seat?

This CA-45 Republican market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1221% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 27.3% on the No side, suggesting either deeply mispriced odds or very high conviction among No holders given California's Democratic lean in this district. The $13.6k open interest against zero 24-hour volume and a 2¢ spread indicates illiquidity typical of niche political markets, while the 664% realized volatility and 7.0 cliff risk index signal this contract experiences sharp, unpredictable moves despite the long 200-day timeframe. The flat price action (12¢ to 13¢ over seven days) combined with minimal information arrival (0.6/hour) suggests the market may be waiting for concrete candidate announcements or polling data to drive meaningful repricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade