Will the Republican Party win the CA-47 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2425.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 13.7% on the No side, reflecting the 7¢ price that heavily favors Democratic retention of this traditionally blue California seat. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $17,228.697 in open interest and a 2¢ spread suggests illiquidity despite the substantial positions held, indicating this may be a stale or lightly-traded contract. With 200 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, the market has adequate time for price discovery, but the extreme yield skew and lack of recent trading activity warrant caution about whether the 7¢ price accurately reflects current political fundamentals in CA-47.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade