Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the April meeting?

This market shows extreme distress signals with the "Yes" position (no change) priced at just 18¢ despite a massive 12,172% implied yield, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment. The price has collapsed 57% over seven days (from 42¢ to 18¢) amid elevated realized volatility of 1,425% and a wide 8¢ spread, indicating thin liquidity with only $475 in 24-hour volume against $1.43M open interest. With just 14 days to the April 30 close and the actual meeting likely occurring before then, the market faces imminent resolution cliff risk (score of 5), making this a highly speculative position where the extreme yield reflects illiquidity premium rather than fundamental probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the monetary policy rate as a result of the Central Bank of Colombia's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Central Bank of Colombia after its April 30, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar: https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos. This market may resolve as soon as the Central Bank of Colombia's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Indicators

Regime

Trade