Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. This market has collapsed from 50¢ to 9¢ over seven days, suggesting either new information about Claude's capabilities or shifting expectations around the exam's difficulty, though the 4,993% implied yield on "Yes" indicates extreme underpricing relative to the binary outcome structure.
Analysis
This market has collapsed from 50¢ to 9¢ over seven days, suggesting either new information about Claude's capabilities or shifting expectations around the exam's difficulty, though the 4,993% implied yield on "Yes" indicates extreme underpricing relative to the binary outcome structure. With only $3,924 in open interest and $174 daily volume against a 74-day timeframe, liquidity is dangerously thin, creating potential for sharp reversals if new Claude benchmark results emerge. The 27x volatility ratio and 10/10 cliff risk index suggest this market is highly unstable and may be driven more by sentiment swings than fundamental reassessment of whether Claude can clear a 55% threshold on a specialized exam.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x1a89ff4d047c52e0e7030e4effd0fd9d98a032da515ab7fff5c2eed82db374ea yes 100